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The first book to confront the imminent dollar crisis.

Given the current global economic situation, a dollar crisis seems imminent. It is predicted that the series of financial and currency crises in recent years will soon culminate in the collapse of the U.S. dollar, facilitating a worldwide economic slump. This timely and challenging book brings together the origins of this crisis and the solutions that will help counter global imbalance. Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, The Dollar Crisis is a highly relevant guide for all markets, since the collapse of the U.S. dollar will result in global destabilization impacting capital markets everywhere.

Richard Duncan (Hong Kong) has worked as a financial analyst in Asia for more than fifteen years. During his career, he has worked for leading companies such as Salomon Brothers, HSBC Securities, International Monetary Fund, and The World Bank.

PART ONE: THE ORIGIN OF ECONOMIC BUBBLES.

Introduction.

Chapter 1. The Imbalance of Payments.

Chapter 2. Effervescent Economies.

Chapter 3. The New Paradigm Bubble.

Chapter 4. The Great American Bubble (of the 1920s).

PART TWO: FLAWS IN THE DOLLAR STANDARD.

Introduction.

Chapter 5. The New Paradigm Recession.

Chapter 6. The Fate of the Dollar: Half a Trillion Reasons Why the Dollar Must.

Collapse.

Chapter 7. Asset Bubbles and Banking Crises.

Chapter 8. Deflation.

PART THREE: GLOBAL RECESSION AND THE DEATH OF MONETARISM.

Introduction.

Chapter 9. Global Recession: Why, When, and How Hard.

Chapter 10. The End of the Era of Export-led Growth.

Chapter 11. Monetarism is Drowning.

PART FOUR: POLICY TOOLS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY.

Introduction.

Chapter 12. A Global Minimum Wage.

Chapter 13. Controlling the Global Money Supply.

PART FOUR：THE EVOLUTION OF A CRISIS

Introduction

Chapter 14 Deflation：The Fed's Greatest Fear

Chapter 15 The Run on the Dollar,2003

Chapter 16 The Great Reflation

Chapter 17 Understanding Interest Rates in the Age of Paper Money

Chapter 18 What's Worrying the Chairman?

Chapter 19 After Reflation,Deflation

Chapter 20 Bernankeism

Conclusion.

Index.

Richard Duncan has worked as a financial analyst in Asia for more than 16 years, conducting research and publishing investment reports on companies, industries, and economics from India to Korea.

In 1993, Mr. Duncan one of the first to warn of the im

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信用扩张所带来的繁荣最后一旦崩溃，危机是没有任何手段可以避免的，唯一的差别是危机应该先来还是后到。

流通泛滥成灾，造成经济过热及资产价格过度膨胀的现象。

信用泡沫，其特点是经济持续过热和资产价格膨胀。

过度投资产生生产过剩、物价下跌以及利润下滑的不良后果。当这些问题积聚到一定程度时，就出现股市崩溃、公司破产、银行倒闭以及通货紧缩。

经常账户可视为一国与各国之间进行的商品和劳务的交易，而资本及金融账户是指一国与各国之间的资本流动。

储备资产急速上升的国家，最后都陷入了国内的投资狂潮中，随之而来的是资产价格的急剧膨胀，并最终以金融浩劫收场。

当盈余存入银行体系时，货币供给不断扩大，经济增长也在加速，资产价格更是一飞冲天。

当信用不断扩张时，资产价格就会迅速膨胀，不但刺激了消费，也使经济扩张加速进行。然而到了最后，物价的上涨幅度会超过总收入的增加，当初人们以信用融资取得这些资产，如今却无法支付利息。接着就会发生破产，财务压力增加，信用紧缩，资产价格迅速下跌，不但抑制了消费，也对经济造成严重损害。

由信用驱动的大规模投资热潮显然缺乏可持续性。

任何经济繁荣都不可能持久。

实体经济对新厂房设备的投资无法再获利时，过多的热钱就转移到了股市。

当利润的增长赶不上飙升的股价涨幅时，泡沫就会破裂。接着股价就会暴跌，信用会紧缩、破产倒闭事件也会频繁发生，演变成银行危机。

在经济上升期，不断扩张的经济增长会造成信用增长，而到了经济周期的后期，信用的增长往往会造成过度投资和过度消费，刺激经济增长。当这些信用无法偿付时，经济就会急转直下，衰退也由此形成。

防范经济萧条唯一有效的方式，就是杜绝经济过热。

负债的扩张速度绝对不能超过收入的扩张速度，无论是家庭还是国家都是这样。

只有政府才具备偿债能力。

问题总是出现在经济周期的高峰。只要信用持续扩张，借钱的人偿还其贷款就不会有困难，即使他们是借新还旧。只有当新贷款开始枯竭时，信用质量才会真正恶化。

在股价节节下跌中买进，就如同空手去抓一把笔直坠落的刀，是再危险不过的行为！

书籍介绍

In this updated, second edition of the highly acclaimed international best seller, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures, Richard Duncan describes the flaws in the international monetary system that have destabilized the global economy and that may soon culminate in a deflation-induced worldwide economic slump. The Dollar Crisis is divided into five parts: Part One describes how the US trade deficits, which now exceed US$1 million a minute, have destabilized the global economy by creating a worldwide credit bubble. Part Two explains why these giant deficits cannot persist and why a US recession and a collapse in the value of the Dollar are unavoidable. Part Three analyzes the extraordinarily harmful impact that the US recession and the collapse of the Dollar will have on the rest of the world. Part Four offers original recommendations that, if implemented, would help mitigate the damage of the coming worldwide downturn and put in place the foundations for balanced and sustainable economic growth in the decades ahead. Part Five, which has been newly added to the second edition, describes the extraordinary evolution of this crisis since the first edition was completed in September 2002. It also considers how the Dollar Crisis is likely to unfold over the years immediately ahead, the likely policy response to the crisis, and why that response cannot succeed. The Dollar Standard is inherently flawed and increasingly unstable. Its collapse will be the most important economic event of the 21st Century.