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Stocks for the Long Run set a precedent as the most complete and irrefutable case for stock market investment ever written. Now, this bible for long-term investing continues its tradition with a fourth edition featuring updated, revised, and new material that will keep you competitive in the global market and up-to-date on the latest index instruments.

Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel provides a potent mix of new evidence, research, and analysis supporting his key strategies for amassing a solid portfolio with enhanced returns and reduced risk. In a seamless narrative that incorporates the historical record of the markets with the realities of today's investing environment, the fourth edition features:

A new chapter on globalization that documents how the emerging world will soon overtake the developed world and how it impacts the global economy

An extended chapter on indexing that includes fundamentally weighted indexes, which have historically offered better returns and lower volatility than their capitalization-weighted counterparts

Insightful analysis on what moves the market and how little we know about the sources of big market changes

A sobering look at behavioral finance and the psychological factors that can lead investors to make irrational investment decisions

A major highlight of this new edition of Stocks for the Long Run is the chapter on global investing. With the U.S. stock market currently holding less than half of the world's equity capitalization, it's important for investors to diversify abroad. This updated edition shows you how to create an “efficient portfolio” that best balances asset allocation in domestic and foreign markets and provides thorough coverage on sector allocation across the globe.

Stocks for the Long Run is essential reading for every investor and advisor who wants to fully understand the market-including its behavior, past trends, and future influences-in order to develop a prosperous long-term portfolio that is both safe and secure.

Foreword

Preface

Acknowledgments

PART 1 THE VERDICT OF HISTORY

　Chapter 1 Stock and Bond Returns Since 1802

　　"Everybody Ought to Be Rich"

　　Financial Market Returns from 1802

　　The Long-Term Performance of Bonds

　　The End of the Gold Standard and Price Stability

　　Total Real Returns

　　Interpretation of Returns

Long-Term Returns

Short-Term Returns and Volatility

　　Real Returns on Fixed-Income Assets

　　The Fall in Fixed-Income Returns

　　The Equity Premium

　　Worldwide Equity and Bond Returns: Global Stocks for the Long Run

　　Conclusion: Stocks for the Long Run

　　Appendix 1: Stocks from 1802 to 1870

　　Appendix 2: Arithmetic and Geometric Returns

　Chapter 2 Risk, Retum, and Portfolio Allocation:

　　Why Stocks Are Less Risky Than Bonds in the Long Run

　　Measuring Risk and Return

　　Risk and Holding Period

　　Investor Returns from Market Peaks

　　Standard Measures of Risk

　　Varying Correlation between Stock and Bond Returns

　　Efficient Frontiers

　　Recommended Portfolio Allocations

　　Inflation-Indexed Bonds

　　Conclusion

　Chapter 3 Stock Indexes: Proxies for the Market

　　Market Averages

　　The Dow Jones Averages

　Computation of the Dow Index

Long-Term Trends in the Dow Jones

　　Beware the Use of Trend Lines to Predict Future Returns

　　Value-Weighted Indexes

Standard & Poor's Index

Nasdaq Index

Other Stock Indexes: The Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP)

　　Return Biases in Stock Indexes

　　Appendix: What Happened to the Original 12 Dow Industrials?

　Chapter 4 The S&P 500 Index: A Half Century of U.S. Corporate History

　　Sector Rotation in the S&P 500 Index

　　Top-Performing Firms

　　How Bad News for the Firm Becomes Good News for Investors

　　Top-Performing Survivor Firms

　　Other Firms That Turned Golden

　　Outperformance of Original S&P 500 Firms

　　Conclusion

PART 2 VALUATION, STYLE INVESTING, AND GLOBAL MARKETS

PART 3 HOW THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT IMPACTS STOCKS

PART 4 STOCK FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SHORT RUN

PART 5 BUILDING WEALTH THROUGH STOCKS

Index

Jeremy J. Siegel is the Russell E.Palmer Professor of Finance at The Wharton School of the University of Penneylvania, the acadmic director of the Securities Industry Institute, and a senior investment strategy advisor to WisdomTree Investments, which cre

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第一个阶段，从1802年到1870年，美国从一个农业社会转变为以工业经济为主体的社会；第二阶段，从1871年到1925年美国成为世界政治和经济第一大国。第三阶段，从1926年至今，包括1929~1933年的股市大崩溃、经济大萧条以及第二次世界大战后的通货膨胀。

I envision a future of international incorporations, where firms choose to be governed by a set of international rules agreed upon among nations and where the headquarters...no importance.

the recession that followed the first OPEC oil queeze pummeled the stock market...

inflation may also lower stock prices when it increases investors' fears that the central bank will take restrictive action by raising short-term real interest rates. such restrictive policies are often followed by an economic slowdown that also depresses stock prices.

但是不管怎样，那些成功的投资者肯定是在付出了极大的耐心以后才获得成功的。1937年，凯恩斯在《就业、利息和货币通论》中说道：“基于长期预期基础上的投资在如今根本就难以付诸实践。”70多年后，尽管长期投资仍然与以前样有很大难度，但是在不断发展的全球经济背景下，我们坚信股票对于那些追求长期利益的投资者来说依然是最好的投资选择。

On September 3, 1929, a few days after Raskob’s plan appeared, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a historic high of 381.17. Seven weeks later, stocks crashed. The next 34 months saw the most devastating decline in share values in U.S. history.

On July 8, 1932, when the carnage was finally over, the Dow Industrials stood at 41.22. The market value of the world’s greatest corporations had declined an incredible 89 percent.

就我所知，只能用过去判断未来。

金本位制能限制货币供给，进而限制通货膨胀率……在大萧条到第二次世界大战期间，全世界都转而采用了纸币本位制。在纸币本位制下，货币发行没有法律限制，通货膨胀不仅取决于经济因素，还受到政治力量的制约。价格水平的稳定性依赖于中央银行限制货币供给的能力以及控制联邦政府通货膨胀政策的能力。

美国和其他发达国家在第二次世界大战后所经历的长期的通货膨胀并不意味着金本位制优于货币本位制。金本位制之所以被抛弃，就是因为它在出现经济危机时不够灵活，这在30年代的银行业崩溃中表现得尤其明显。如果得到正确的管理，纸币本位制能够避免发生金本位制下的那种银行恐慌和严重的萧条。但是取得这种稳定性必须以长期的通货膨胀为代价。

……黄金价格在过去两个世纪中一直与通货膨胀的总趋势相吻合……从长期看，黄金能使投资者部分的防范通货膨胀风险，但是它的作用仅此而已。无论贵金属具有怎样的保值特征，这些资产都会极大地降低长期投资者投资组合的收益率。

股票收益能使投资者完全抵消在第二次世界大战后不断提高的通货膨胀的影响，固定收入证券的收益却不能。货币基础从黄金向纸币的转变对后者产生了极大的影响。

在金融领域，估计风险和收益的困难并不是因为缺少足够的数据。股票和债券的日常价格可以向前追溯100多年，按月记录的某些工业品和农业品的价格甚至可以向前追溯几个世纪。但是规模庞大的数据并不能保证对这些参数进行估计的正确性，因为你永远也不能确保那些影响资产价格的因素是一成不变的。你不可能像在物理学中那样进行控制性实验，在其他因素固定不变的情况下改变所研究的变量的价值，正如诺贝尔奖得主保罗萨缪尔森常说的那样，“我们只有一个历史样本。”

尽管持有股票似乎比持有债券风险更高，但是正确的结论却恰恰相反：保持购买力的最安全的长期投资工具显然是股票而不是债券。

……20年、30年或更长的持有期间是非常正常的，甚至对那些...

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For more than a decade, Stocks for the Long Run has been the authoritative guide to understanding market forces and building a successful portfolio. In this new fourth edition, Jeremy Siegel updates his argument for long-term stock market investment with: comparisons of ETFs, mutual funds, and index options and futures; evidence that the rapid growth of emerging markets will not only continue but may accelerate; insight into the benefits of fundamental indexation over market value indexation; an updated look at the surprising validity of Calendar Effects; and fresh analysis of the best-performing stocks since the formulation of the S&P 500 Index.

　　Praise for previous editions of STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN

　　“A simply great book.”-Forbes

　　“One of the top ten business books of the year.”-BusinessWeek

　　“Should command a central place on the desk of any 'amateur' investor or beginning professional.”-Barron's

　　“Siegel's case for stocks is unbridled and compelling.”-USA Today

　　“A clearly written, neatly organized, highly persuasive exposition that lifts the veil of mystery from investing.”-John C. Bogle, Founder and former Chairman, The Vanguard Group

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Stocks for the Long Run set a precedent as the most complete and irrefutable case for stock market investment ever written. Now, this bible for long-term investing continues its tradition with a fourth edition featuring updated, revised, and new material that will keep you competitive in the global market and up-to-date on the latest index instruments. Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel provides a potent mix of new evidence, research, and analysis supporting his key strategies for amassing a solid portfolio with enhanced returns and reduced risk. In a seamless narrative that incorporates the historical record of the markets with the realities of today's investing environment, the fourth edition features: A new chapter on globalization that documents how the emerging world will soon overtake the developed world and how it impacts the global economy An extended chapter on indexing that includes fundamentally weighted indexes, which have historically offered better returns and lower volatility than their capitalization-weighted counterparts Insightful analysis on what moves the market and how little we know about the sources of big market changes A sobering look at behavioral finance and the psychological factors that can lead investors to make irrational investment decisions A major highlight of this new edition of Stocks for the Long Run is the chapter on global investing. With the U.S. stock market currently holding less than half of the world's equity capitalization, it's important for investors to diversify abroad. This updated edition shows you how to create an “efficient portfolio” that best balances asset allocation in domestic and foreign markets and provides thorough coverage on sector allocation across the globe. Stocks for the Long Run is essential reading for every investor and advisor who wants to fully understand the market-including its behavior, past trends, and future influences-in order to develop a prosperous long-term portfolio that is both safe and secure.